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	<title>Deceptively Simple &#187; music industry</title>
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	<description>Music and culture from Marc Geelhoed, artistic bureaucrat</description>
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		<title>Playing the numbers</title>
		<link>http://www.deceptively-simple.com/2008/11/playing-the-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.deceptively-simple.com/2008/11/playing-the-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:15:35 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[music business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[music industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[online music]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.deceptively-simple.com/?p=91</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of those nasty stories that has a way of focusing your thinking ran in today&#8217;s business section in the NYT. Atlantic Records, a subsidiary of Warner Music Group, reported that revenue from digital-downloads outstripped revenue from physical CDs this year. Unit sales of downloads surpassed CDs for the first time in 2007, as the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/media/26music.html?_r=1&amp;ref=business" target="_blank">those nasty stories that has a way of focusing your thinking</a> ran in today&#8217;s business section in the <em>NYT</em>. Atlantic Records, a subsidiary of Warner Music Group, reported that revenue from digital-downloads outstripped revenue from physical CDs this year. Unit sales of downloads surpassed CDs for the first time in 2007, as the graphic accompanying the story points out.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a nasty bit of evidence not because so many people are now able to listen to music, but are getting it by file-sharing, which is just a reality; it&#8217;s nasty because this is actually digital revenue being greater, and throughout the industry, digital sales are a tiny slice of the pie.</p>
<p>Payments from subscription sites, for example, are pro-rated across a user&#8217;s entire streamed uses, so instead of getting, say, $17.00 for an album sale, it&#8217;s streamed and the label (and artist) get whatever percentage of the monthly subscription rate they earned. You pay $15 a month, listen to 200 tracks, that&#8217;s $0.075 per track. Say 10 of those were from one album; therefore, the label gets back $0.75 for it. (Before the fees to the providers are deducted.)</p>
<p>I digress. The articles states that Warner doesn&#8217;t break out sales on a label-by-label basis, so I don&#8217;t know what Atlantic&#8217;s share of WMG&#8217;s $854 million in revenue for the last fiscal year was. I also can&#8217;t predict the future, but if digital sales continue to edge their way up as a percentage of overall sales, there&#8217;ll be significant cutbacks made in the amount of new recorded music that&#8217;s issued.</p>
<p>Which is unfortunate, because say what you will about excessive overheard, or mismanagement, or whatever, the fact remains that labels can get things done that artists can&#8217;t. Releasing your stuff on your own lacks the marketplace heft of a label. (Yes, labels have their down sides, too.) But even on the indie side, labels like <a href="http://www.thrilljockey.com/" target="_blank">Thrill Jockey</a> and <a href="http://killrockstars.com/" target="_blank">Kill Rock Stars</a>, or, if you prefer, <a href="https://www.newamsterdamrecords.com/" target="_blank">New Amsterdam</a>, give their artists cachet through their presence in a trusted stable of musicians.</p>
<p>How this is going to play out remains to be seen, but I do know that the big players will not sit around and let the &#8220;digital pennies&#8221; mentioned in the article be their business plan. The numbers have to add up, and everyone (even &#8211; especially &#8211; on my side of the record-industry fence) are making sure they add up high enough. A $10 billion industry has many devoted consumers who have expressed a clear interest in the ongoing viability of the products created by that industry. Which is the wonky PowerPoint-presentation way of saying, of course, that people want music.</p>
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